Category: Publications
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Redistribution in Reverse: The Macroeconomics of the OBBB with Addendum on the Senate Version
This amended policy brief evaluates the macroeconomic and distributional implications of both the House-passed and Senate-passed versions of the One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB). The Senate (and final) version is largely similar to the House bill in structure and priorities. Both preserve the core individual income tax provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs…
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Assessing the Economic Effects of Extending and Increasing the QBI Deduction
The 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) introduced a tax deduction of 20% of qualified business income (QBI) for pass-through businesses. This provision is set to expire at the end of 2025, but Republican lawmakers have proposed both extending it and increasing the deduction to 23%. This brief describes IMPA’s evaluation of the proposal.…
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Preliminary Estimates of the Macroeconomic Costs of Cutting Federal Funding for Scientific Research
Federal agencies such as NIH and NSF are critical sources of funding for basic and applied scientific research. Recently, many of these agencies have seen their research operations frozen or downsized. This brief describes a new analysis of the macroeconomic costs of cutting federal funding for scientific R&D. The brief finds that budget cuts to…
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Assessing the Effects of Keeping Top Individual Income Tax Rates Low
The TCJA cut income taxes on top earners from 39.6% to 37%, among other changes. This brief assesses the macroeconomic impact of making the TCJA tax cut on top earners permanent compared to letting it expire and compared to raising it. IMPA’s assessment shows that permanent extension of the TCJA tax cut on top earners…
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Technical Note on the Economics of Taxing Capital Gains
This technical note describes how, under the current system of capital gains taxation, capital gain income is taxed at lower rates than labor income—and only upon realization of the gains and with a step-up in basis at death. This system distorts the economy and contributes to inequality. Lower tax rates on capital gains income do…
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Taxing Excessive Profits: Designing a Pro-Competition Corporate Tax System
This brief, authored by Ira Regmi and Niko Lusiani, lays the groundwork for a pro-competition corporate income tax system, emphasizing the economic rationale for taxing the excess profits of large U.S. businesses. A preliminary draft was shared to kick off the IMPA-RI co-organized expert convening at American University in October 2024
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Equity Prices, Market Power, and Optimal Corporate Tax Policy
This academic paper studies the optimal design of corporate tax policy in a textbook life-cycle model featuring two key deviations: (i) firms are imperfectly competitive and (ii) households save by purchasing equity shares in a stock market. In this simple environment, the financial wealth of savers is equal to the sum of the productive capital…
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Evaluating the Harris and Trump Corporate Tax Proposals
Vice President Kamala Harris proposes raising the corporate tax rate to 28% from its current 21%, while former President Donald Trump proposes lowering it to 15%. The IMPA model projects that the Harris proposal will modestly increase GDP and government revenue. In contrast, it projects that the Trump proposal will slightly contract GDP and government…
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Technical Note on Estimating the Overall Effect of Corporate Tax Reforms
This technical note first describes key differences between estimating the impact of a change in tax policy at the firm (microeconomic) level and at the overall (macroeconomic) level. It then explains how macroeconomic models are used to infer the overall effects of policy reforms and how alternative assumptions – such as the presence of market…
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Assessing the Effects of a Dividend and Capital Gains Tax Increase
This brief provides a new analysis of the macroeconomic effects of raising taxes on dividend income and capital gains. Increasing dividend income and capital gains taxes from 20% to 39.6% for households earning over $1 million would raise government revenue by about 5% and GDP by about 1% in the long term. The proposed tax increase…