Category: Reports
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Redistribution in Reverse: The Macroeconomics of the OBBB
This policy brief evaluates key provisions of the House’s May 2025 version of the One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) Act. The bill would extend and expand provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act that mainly benefit the wealthy while cutting social programs and tax credits for green investment. The House’s version of the…
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Assessing the Economic Effects of Extending and Increasing the QBI Deduction
The 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) introduced a tax deduction of 20% of qualified business income (QBI) for pass-through businesses. This provision is set to expire at the end of 2025, but Republican lawmakers have proposed both extending it and increasing the deduction to 23%. This brief describes IMPA’s evaluation of the proposal.…
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Preliminary Estimates of the Macroeconomic Costs of Cutting Federal Funding for Scientific Research
Federal agencies such as NIH and NSF are critical sources of funding for basic and applied scientific research. Recently, many of these agencies have seen their research operations frozen or downsized. This brief describes a new analysis of the macroeconomic costs of cutting federal funding for scientific R&D. The brief finds that budget cuts to…
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Assessing the Effects of Keeping Top Individual Income Tax Rates Low
The TCJA cut income taxes on top earners from 39.6% to 37%, among other changes. This brief assesses the macroeconomic impact of making the TCJA tax cut on top earners permanent compared to letting it expire and compared to raising it. IMPA’s assessment shows that permanent extension of the TCJA tax cut on top earners…
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Taxing Excessive Profits: Designing a Pro-Competition Corporate Tax System
This brief, authored by Ira Regmi and Niko Lusiani, lays the groundwork for a pro-competition corporate income tax system, emphasizing the economic rationale for taxing the excess profits of large U.S. businesses. A preliminary draft was shared to kick off the IMPA-RI co-organized expert convening at American University in October 2024
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Evaluating the Harris and Trump Corporate Tax Proposals
Vice President Kamala Harris proposes raising the corporate tax rate to 28% from its current 21%, while former President Donald Trump proposes lowering it to 15%. The IMPA model projects that the Harris proposal will modestly increase GDP and government revenue. In contrast, it projects that the Trump proposal will slightly contract GDP and government…
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Assessing the Effects of a Dividend and Capital Gains Tax Increase
This brief provides a new analysis of the macroeconomic effects of raising taxes on dividend income and capital gains. Increasing dividend income and capital gains taxes from 20% to 39.6% for households earning over $1 million would raise government revenue by about 5% and GDP by about 1% in the long term. The proposed tax increase…
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Repealing the Clean Energy Credits: A Macroeconomic Assessment of the GOP Proposal
This brief explains a new analysis of a Republican proposal to repeal the clean energy credits from the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act. The analysis finds that withdrawal of the clean energy credits would reduce GDP by approximately 2% in the long run from its anticipated level under current policy, while depressing employment and wages by…
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New Macroeconomic Model Shows TCJA Corporate Tax Cut was Harmful to the Economy in both Aggregate and Distributional Terms
This brief explains IMPA’s analysis of the corporate tax cuts in the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA). IMPA’s analysis accurately predicts the growth in investment, output, jobs, and wages that followed its enactment.