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Redistribution in Reverse: The Macroeconomics of the OBBB

This policy brief evaluates key provisions of the House’s May 2025 version of the One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) Act. The bill would extend and expand provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act that mainly benefit the wealthy while cutting social programs and tax credits for green investment. The House’s version of the OBBB would reduce GDP by approximately 0.5% after 10 years and over 1% after 30 years, and it would add $2.9 trillion to the deficit by 2034 despite substantial cuts to spending. Nearly half of this negative GDP impact stems from the proposed repeal of IRA tax credits. The bill would amount to redistribution in reverse: It would transfer income from the poorest working families, who would see their incomes decrease by 5% by 2034, to the wealthiest households, who would see their incomes rise by over 2%.